Table CNT6.1 shows the Tonga distribution of year six overall numeracy scores against the PILNA numeracy proficiency scale. This scale converts a student’s overall numeracy score into a level ranking from zero to eight. The expected minimum overall numeracy performance for year six students is proficiency level five (Figure CNF6.7). Pacific stakeholders expect these students to reach or exceed this proficiency level.

The average overall numeracy score for year six students in Tonga in 2021 was 556.81 (SD = 52.02). This corresponds to proficiency level seven in the PILNA numeracy proficiency scale (level seven is assigned to scores 550–575). On average, year six students in Tonga are exceeding the minimum expected standard in numeracy.

The average numeracy score does not tell us the whole story. The proportion of students who are meeting the minimum expected standard is also important. Approximately 87% of students performed at or above this expected level (levels 5–8), while approximately 13% of students performed below the expected proficiency level (levels 0–4). In other words, most year six students are meeting the minimum expected level for numeracy (87%), but there is a small proportion (13%) who are yet to meet that level.

Tonga is performing well in numeracy, not only against the PILNA proficiency level benchmarks, but against the region in PILNA 2021 (Table CNT6.2). On average, year six students in Tonga (556.81) are scoring higher in numeracy than year six students in the region (530.59). Further, about 87% of year six students met or exceeded the expected minimum numeracy proficiency levels compared with 72% across the region.

When looking at the Tonga distribution of year six numeracy proficiency scores in 2021 by gender (Table CNT6.3), differences can be seen. Approximately 91% of girls performed at or above the expected proficiency level (levels 5–8) compared to approximately 83% of boys.

Figure CNF6.8 shows year six scores for Tonga students on the PILNA numeracy proficiency scale over time. A lower proportion of year six students met the minimum expected level of overall numeracy performance in 2021 than in 2018, but this proportion is still higher than in 2015 (2015 = 83%, 2018 = 92%, 2021 = 87%).