Table CNT4.1 shows the distribution of year four overall numeracy scores in Tokelau against the PILNA numeracy proficiency scale. This scale converts a student’s overall numeracy score into a level ranking from zero to eight. The expected minimum overall numeracy performance for year four students is proficiency level three. Pacific stakeholders expect these students to reach or exceed this proficiency level.

The average overall numeracy score for year four students in Tokelau in 2021 was 464.81 (SD = 59.31). This corresponds to proficiency level three in the PILNA numeracy proficiency scale (level three is assigned to scores 450–475) Figure CNF4.5. On average, year four students in Tokelau are achieving the minimum expected standard in numeracy.

The average numeracy score does not tell us the whole story. The proportion of students who are meeting the minimum expected standard is also important.  Approximately 68% of the year four students in Tokelau, two out of three, performed at or above this expected level (levels 3–8) in PILNA 2021. Conversely, approximately 32% of the students, one out of three, performed below the expected proficiency level (levels 0–2). In other words, most year four students are meeting the minimum expected level for numeracy, but there is a significant proportion (32%) who are yet to do so.

Table CNT4.2 shows that on average, year four students in Tokelau (465) are scoring lower in numeracy than year four students in the region (478.91). However, the proportion of year four students in Tokelau who are meeting the minimum expected proficiency level for numeracy (68%) is about the same as the proportion across the region (67%) and slightly higher than the proportion in Small Island States (63%).

When looking at the Tokelau distribution of year four numeracy proficiency scores in 2021 by gender (Table CNT4.3), differences can be seen. Approximately 81% of girls performed at or above the minimum expected proficiency level (levels 3–8) compared to approximately 57% of boys. Additionally, boys represented higher proportions of the students performing at level zero and level one than girls; 18% of year four boys performed at level one compared to 3% of girls, and 11% of boys performed at level zero compared to 5% of girls.